我国粮食产后损失情况概述

本文系统分析了粮食产后各环节损失的原因及损失量,针对相关粮食损失原因及状况,提出了减少粮食产后损失的措施及建议,以期为我国实现节粮减损提供支持。     

Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?

In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.     

人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。     

规范行政事业单位国有资产管理工作

行政事业是国家部门,其国有资产在社会发展中具有重要的作用,特别是能够为社会提供能够提高生活保障的公共服务。因此,行政事业单位的国有资产具有公共性和公益性等特点。鉴于这些因素,行政事业单位的国有资产必须创新管理工作方法。     

企业财务管理中的业财融合问题分析

近年来,随着我国各领域的快速发展,企业的数量持续增多,各企业扩大了发展规模,承受着巨大的竞争压力。通过业财融合问题的分析,发现企业财务管理对企业的经济发展有直接的影响性。对此,需要提高重视度,优化管理理念,创新管理模式,及时地发现业财融合所存在的问题,采取科学合理的措施进行有效解决,确保企业财务管理工作的稳定发展。     

乡镇政府财务管理的常见问题及完善策略

乡镇政府是我国的基层单位,其开展的工作与我国广大群众的生活息息相关,与人民的利益也是紧密相连的。因此,乡镇政府财务管理工作极其重要,甚至影响着集体的进步与发展。但现实生活中,乡镇政府财务管理存在着很多问题,这些都需要引起我们的重视。论文详细列举乡镇政府财务管理存在的问题,并且就这些问题提出一些相应的、科学的解决方法与措施。     

浅谈公路工程质量问题及管理措施

近年来,我国经济高速发展,领导人员深刻地认识到便捷的交通是经济高速发展的基石,进而大力发展基础设施建设。在国家的大力支持下,我国公路等基础设施建设技术水平位居世界前列。在公路工程中,公路的质量问题以及相关管理是不容忽视的。论文针对公路工程的质量问题及管理措施进行了探讨。     

实体经济发展困境及政策建议:从制造业视角

近年来,在虚拟经济高回报率的吸引下,中国经济出现了“脱实向虚”的现象,导致实体经济发展受到极大的冲击,许多制造业企业面临着成本居高不下、人才匮乏、融资困难、专利维权效益不高和舆论环境出现偏差等系列问题。因此,本文通过分析中国实体经济发展存在的问题,提出营造有利于实体经济发展的舆论环境,提出降低实体经济企业成本、加强金融财税支持、强化人才保障、推动研发创新和加强知识产权保护等系列政策建议,以促进实体经济平稳快速发展。     

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.     

Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes

Among Asian economies, Hong Kong has experienced the highest real growth in house prices since the 2010s. Two macroprudential measures, namely credit tightening (loan-to-value ratio cap) and transaction taxes (stamp duty), were introduced to cool down the overheated housing market. This study examines and compares their effectiveness based on a set of constant-quality house price indices. Through an error correction model, we find that credit tightening was able to curb house price growth in the high-price segment, while transaction taxes could not. An explanation is that the exemptions from transaction taxes for those with genuine housing needs could be abused by other market participants. It is easier for buyers to exploit the exemptions to get around the stamp duty than to manipulate the property valuation for mortgage lending. The implication is that the effectiveness of macroprudential measures hinges on whether compliance or exemption can be easily monitored and enforced.